This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it - New ScientistHowever much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk?Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
Part I Dare to know: uncertainty; the illusion of certainty; innumeracy; insight. Part II Understanding uncertainties in the real world: breast cancer screening; (un)informed consent; AIDS counselling; wife battering; experts on trial; DNA fingerprinting; violent people. Part III From innumeracy to insight: how innumeracy can be exploited; fun problems; teaching clear thinking.
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